Ugandan exports expected to be static due to drought

Reports out of Uganda indicate that the coffee industry there is hoping that exports levels for the 2014-15 season mirrors those posted in previous years as the nation begins to recover, slowly, from a period of drought.

The worst case scenario that those in the sector are bracing them for is a slight change, highlighting the fact that there’s a blanket of optimism over the East African nation at the moment.

According to released figures, shipments of coffee from October last year though to this September remain in the region of 3.5 million.

However for Africa’s second biggest producer of coffee, this benchmark estimation represents a drop from 2012-13’s figure of 3.6 million.

Henry Ngabirano, the managing director of the government-led Uganda Coffee Development Authority believes that production will remain at a ‘stable’ 4 million, though not all of that will be made available to be sold abroad.

He also pleaded calm and, despite the optimism that the effects of a sharp dry spell, he urged caution:

“Coffee trees need time to recover,” he said in an interview conducted earlier this week.

During his time with the press he also noted that without the implement replanting initiative, “the forecast would have been lower.”

It is believed that some 17 million new trees were planted in the last growing season and many within the industry quietly predict that the final figure may reach 225 million in the next few years.

This wide-scale replanting process was adopted in the mid-1990s when Uganda was forced to replace foliage that had been decimated by a horrendous outbreak of coffee wilt disease which destroyed around 150 million plants. Without this long-standing project, the recent agricultural adverse conditions could have seen the country face a shortfall in production.

A further long-term solution that could be adopted by the Ugandan coffee sector is that of primarily switching to drought resistant coffee plants.

“We have to have varieties that are adaptable to climate change,” Ngabirano said of this demand earlier on this year.

photo: Andrew Bowden cropped as per Creative Commons Licence