El Nino to limit Indonesia’s coffee harvests

Insiders and analysts may all differ on the figures, but the market traders and industry predictors appear to be united that coffee harvests in Indonesia are likely to be down this year.

Indonesia is currently the world’s third-biggest producer of coffee.

The dip in production levels will be caused by the disruptive El Nino weather pattern, which is believed to be the strongest it’s been in nearly two decades.

Last year a total of 645,000 tons of coffee was harvested, but industry analysts believe that figure will drop down to 581,000 in the year starting Q2 2016.

“Out of all the effects that El Nino has on coffee production worldwide, its effects on Indonesia are the most likely,” said Carlos Mera of the London-based firm Rababank.

“El Nino has been making the south of Sumatra very dry and it is expected to keep doing so for the remainder [of the year].”

According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, this year’s weather pattern is the strongest it has been since the late 1990s.

El Nino is the term given to a periodical change in climate over certain parts of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean which then has a knock-on effect around the globe. The extremes of this fluctuation can cause prolonged bouts of extreme weather across the world, ranging from crippling droughts to a sustained downpour of torrential rain.

“We will have to wait and see how the weather keeps developing,” Mera added, insinuating that if current predictions came to fruition then coffee production would be hit.

Moelyono Soesilo, a coffee purchasing manager working out of Indonesia, agreed with Mera’s gloomy outlook: “The condition is really critical; leaves in some plantations in Java are yellowing and will soon dry out and fall off.”

“People are worried about a failed harvest.”