Rabobank, the Dutch multinational financial services company, has revealed that its executives have been toying with the idea of raising coffee price forecasts.
Speaking after conducting one of the biggest crop surveys ever completed, the bank stated that it believes the Brazilian coffee harvest for the 2016-17 season will fall short of current market averages.
According to Sunny Verghese, the chief executive of Olam International, coffee prices will shoot upwards in the near future.
Verghese, the chief executive of Olam International, a Singaporean-based soft commodity training company, believes the industry will break free from the shackles of the past six months.
Members of the global coffee community gathered in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa for two days of discourse at the 4th World Coffee Conference.
Over 900 people from 77 member countries attended thfe event, which was headlined by 20 high-level speakers who led and encouraged debate and discussion on issues relating to the conference’s overarching theme, ‘Nurturing coffee culture and diversity’.
Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of coffee, is set to have a very big year.
Not only is the famous South American country forecasted to have one of its biggest harvests on record, farmers are expecting to haul in a crop of bumper-sized beans.
Coffee prices dipped earlier this week after a market forecast suggested that the impending harvest in Brazil could yield 20% more crops than originally thought.
Upon the news, the cost of Arabica for March dropped 3.5% to finish at $1.116 a pound on the ICE Futures Market.
At one point, it fell as low as $1.111, the cheapest price seen since December 2013.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for world coffee consumption in 2015-15. After looking at the data and getting out the crystal ball, the group has raised its original prediction upwards and is now of the impression that we could drink our way through a record 148.3m bags of coffee.
Speaking at the Global Coffee Forum in Milan, Andrea Illy said that the world needs another coffee producer, of comparable size to Brazil in terms of output, in order to prevent a predicted global shortage from occurring within the next ten years.
Illy, the chairman, chief executive and all-around head honcho of Illycafe, the famous Italian coffee roasters, stated he expects there to be a shortfall of forty to fifty million bags as climate change, low prices, pests and disease lower harvests’ yields.
The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) latest report showcases that coffee prices are in the midst of a downward trend, with the cost of green coffee dropping to their lowest point since the back end of 2013.
The eighteen month low of $1.2 also represents a 4.2% decrease from June’s pricing.
The Alliance for Coffee Excellence (ACE) has been running their Cup of Excellence program since it was first launched in Brazil in 1999. Since that maiden event, the Cup of Excellence (COE) has grown to include – at one point – eleven different coffee producing nations and countless farmers.
At the moment there are twelve different COE events covering ten countries.
For those in the trade who are on the hunt for the best coffee in the world, it’s a much-loved event and for those farmers and plantation workers it is a vital part of the calendar – a good score from the COE judges can increase the value of their handiwork increase exponentially.
The coffee farming industry in Brazil is huge. Roughly a third of the world’s coffee supply comes from this great and vast South American country and sizeable portions of the country is given over to the bean, with the majority of those farms and plantations found in the south-east regions.
Yet despite being one of Brazil’s most populous regions, the state of Rio de Janeiro falls well behind its neighbours of Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Espirito Santo in the coffee growing stakes.
Well, they’re fighting back.