Indonesia expecting a bumper coffee harvest

If you like your Indonesian coffees then we expect you to be doing cartwheels and bouncing off walls at the news that farmers in the country are predicting a bumper crop this season thanks to some recent wet weather.

The archipelago nation is one of the world’s biggest producers of coffee and produces everything from cheap and resilient Robusta through to some exceptionally fine Arabicas that command top dollar at market.

Estimates published in The Jakarta Globe put this year’s haul at a potential 650,000 metric tons, a rise of 18% from the 550,000 tons that was collected last year. If true, this would represent the largest harvest the country has seen, surpassing the record 630,000 ton crop of 2009-10 and 2012-13.

“There’s [a] fresh optimism,” begins Theng Hong Sioe, the deputy chairman of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries. “The weather is quite favourable; it’s not too wet or too dry. Hopefully there’s no adverse weather that could hurt the crop.

Unfortunately for Indonesia’s farmers, this huge haul comes at a time when many market analysts are predicting a (relative) global glut of the bean. After a couple of problematic years production in Brazil is set to improve and a recent survey has indicated that Vietnam – a leading supplier of Robusta – could be set for their own record harvest.

Coinciding with the announcement prices of robusta dropped over 10% at the start of this week to $1,838 a ton on the European Futures market.

“We have seen a slightly better weather pattern during the development of the 2015-16 crop, although still far from perfect [conditions],” said Carlos Mera Arzeno, a London-based commodities analyst.

But despite an air of optimism protruding from many within the industry, others aren’t as confident. “Heavy rain at the end of last year knocked off small cherries, especially on the highlands of southern Sumatra. Production may not be at its best,” warned Moenardji Soedrago.