For the first time in 7 years Arabica could fall to just as little as $1 per pound of beans.

This low value is almost guaranteed to spark protests from producers unfortunately this seems inevitable due to the chronic surplus currently saturating the world’s markets.

Coffee production 2013-14 has exceeded demand for the third successive season.

This has been attributed to a rainy growing season, which looks set to continue as rains are helping to flower next year’s Brazilian Arabica crop ahead of schedule. This could mean that the harvest next year is even better, making the price drop even lower.

Analyst Kona Haque pointed out that prices have already dipped by two thirds since a peak in 2011 at $3 a pound and the market is currently struggling to control the fundamental support factors that could be responsible for turning the market around.

Potential for Brazilian frost which could damage the harvest typically causes investors to inject some cash due to the risk factor for the crop which could bolster the ever dwindling prices.

With growing conditions currently blossoming in Brazil under fantastic conditions the country it tipped to potentially break its own production record of 60 million bags.

The option to change crops is not an easy switch due to the nature of the coffee plant taking production timescale to many years.

A producer’s investment in their harvest is a long term effort and even if the market price of yield falls below production value (approximately 120 cents a pound) the farmers are unlikely to react by pulling up trees, which is good news for Arabica coffee lovers.

Growers in Brazil are currently seeking help and assistance from government support and are threatening action, unspecified as of yet, if their cries for help are not heard.

It is not only happening in Brazil, in February and March, Columbian farmers blockaded roads to campaign for press support regarding the possibility of a promised subsidy due to the bulk harvest they have been experiencing.

So too much coffee can be a bad thing, although the fantastic conditions for growth look set to continue coffee farmers are in for a rough ride. Competition and undercutting of prices will drive the cost of a pound bag lower and lower.

We only hope that the government in these countries assist the farmers wherever possible, and that once the market eventually stabilises that the farmers see the financial benefit of their hard work.